Labour Migration and Remittances in Moldova: Is the Boom Over?
New report finds labour migration and remittances stagnated in 2008
The year 2008 marks a turning point in the evolution of labour migration and remittances in Moldova. Since the late 1990s, the number of Moldovan migrants abroad and the inflow of remittances had grown consistently year after year. As a result, household disposable incomes as well as demand for locally produced goods and services had increased rapidly. Since its peak in the fourth quarter of 2007, the number of migrants estimated by the Labour Force Survey (LFS) has not increased further. Remittances measured in terms of nominal US dollars also appear to be levelling off since the fourth quarter of 2008; measured in terms of their purchasing power in Moldovan Lei, remittances have probably even declined in 2008. For the first time in many years, the Moldovan economy and the policy community now face the prospect of stagnating or even declining labour migration and remittances, with potentially far-reaching effects on Moldovan household incomes and demand for non-tradable products and services.
Thus the 2008 IOM-CBSAXA household survey on labour migration and remittances comes at a critical juncture for Moldova. It follows on the similar surveys of 2006 and 2004 and provides detailed information on the diverse patterns of labour migration and remittances in Moldova and their impact on individual households and communities. This information allows analysis of the long-term trends that have led to the stagnation of labour migration and remittances in 2008, even before the global financial crisis and recession began to affect demand for the services of Moldovan labour migrants. Once the effects of the current global crisis become clearer, information from the survey will also be helpful in assessing the impact on migrants and their families.
